Will Effie Phillips-Staley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Effie Phillips-Staley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $996 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $996 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical 1334% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 1577% realized volatility and 7.0 cliff risk index suggests this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract where small position sizes could cause outsized price swings. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a niche prediction with minimal market attention rather than a genuine pricing signal.
Resolution rules
If Effie Phillips-Staley wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-17 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNY17D-26-EPHI yes 100