Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The Yes position is pricing in an extremely low 7% probability for ETH to exceed $3,000 by late April 2026, yet the implied yield of 34,421% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or structural inefficiency given ETH's current price trajectory and the 14-month timeframe.
Analysis
The Yes position is pricing in an extremely low 7% probability for ETH to exceed $3,000 by late April 2026, yet the implied yield of 34,421% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or structural inefficiency given ETH's current price trajectory and the 14-month timeframe. The 1,445% realized volatility and notably asymmetric yields (Yes at 34,421% vs. No at 195%) suggest this market may be experiencing liquidity constraints or sentiment skew, with only $20,271 open interest and $5,792 daily volume indicating thin conditions that could amplify price swings. The modest 7-cent uptick over seven days combined with the neutral regime score and 0.67 volatility ratio suggest the market hasn't yet priced in the full range of plausible ETH appreciation scenarios over a 14-month horizon.
Resolution rules
If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $3000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26APR30-300000 yes 100