Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.80 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader sits at 4% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $1.90
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Above $1.70
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will XRP trimmed mean be above $
Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.90 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $1.90
KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26JUN30-190
Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.70 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $1.70
KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26JUN30-170
Will XRP trimmed mean be above $2.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $2.00
KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26JUN30-200
Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $1.50
KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26JUN30-150
Analysis
This contract asks whether XRP's trimmed mean price will exceed $1.80 by April 30, 2026—a date now 10 months in the past from today's perspective, suggesting this is a historical resolution or data issue. The 7% probability reflects skepticism that XRP reached this price level during that window. XRP's actual price movements depend on adoption trends, regulatory developments (particularly SEC rulings affecting XRP classification), and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. The main driver of such probabilities is whether market sentiment supports a price appreciation to nearly double recent trading levels. Related contracts show declining probabilities at higher price thresholds: $2.10 is priced at 3%, while $1.40 trades at 6%, indicating the market views higher price targets as increasingly unlikely within specified timeframes. Historical volatility and the current reference price relative to the $1.80 target would determine the outcome.
- ›XRP trimmed mean settlement price at the April 30, 2026 cutoff relative to $1.80 reference level—this resolves the contract directly
- ›Regulatory clarity on XRP's asset classification by the contract date, affecting institutional adoption and price support
- ›Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency market performance during the settlement period, as XRP moves correlated with macro crypto trends
- ›Trading volume and market depth at price levels near $1.80, indicating institutional or retail demand sustainability
- ›Historical XRP volatility relative to the $1.80 target, including whether prior rallies reached comparable levels
What moved the line
- Jun 18Above $1.50↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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