Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 15-cent spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity and unreliable pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 15-cent spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity and unreliable pricing. The 0-cent Yes price implies near-zero probability of French Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding -0.1% QoQ, yet the astronomical implied yields (1024% for Yes, 7487% for No) indicate severe mispricing typical of thin, inactive markets. With only 13 days to resolution and a notable 44-cent price jump over seven days, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a liquid prediction market, making it unsuitable for serious analysis.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 is above -0.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPQOQP-26APR30-T-0.1 yes 100