Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%
Leader sits at 92% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.5%
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Above -0.4%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
34 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T-0.1
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T0.8
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T0.6
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T0.5
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T0.4
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T0.3
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T0.2
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T0.1
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T0.0
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.5%?: Above -0.5%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T-0.5
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T-0.4
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T-0.3
Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2%
KXFRGDPQOQP-26JUL30-T-0.2
Analysis
This market reflects a 94% probability that France's preliminary Q2 2026 GDP growth will exceed -0.5% quarter-over-quarter, indicating traders expect the economy to avoid a substantial contraction. The high probability reflects confidence in modest positive or near-flat growth rather than recession-level decline. Factors supporting this level include France's recent economic resilience and the relatively low threshold; downside risks include eurozone weakness, geopolitical shocks, or weaker-than-expected business/consumer activity. The resolution hinges on INSEE's preliminary GDP release for Q2 2026, typically published in early August 2026. The steep probability gradient across the contract band (78¢ at -0.1% to 94¢ at -0.5%) suggests market uncertainty clusters around slight negative to flat outcomes, not deeper contractions.
- ›INSEE preliminary Q2 2026 GDP release date (typically early August 2026) will definitively resolve the contract
- ›Market prices show 78% confidence in growth above -0.1%, dropping to 94% above -0.5%, indicating consensus uncertainty between slight contraction and flat growth
- ›The 0.4 percentage-point difference between the leading contract (94¢) and the -0.1% threshold (78¢) represents ~16¢ of probability mass, reflecting material divergence in central estimates
- ›Recent Q1 2026 preliminary data would have influenced current pricing; comparison to historical French QoQ GDP volatility (typically ±0.3%) is a baseline calibration
- ›Eurozone PMI releases, inflation data, and ECB policy signals between now and August 2026 will likely shift the probability as new growth indicators emerge
What moved the line
- Jun 24Above 0.4%↑7pp4→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above -0.1%↓5pp78→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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