Will government spending increase by 300000000000 before 2027?
This contract is priced at 77¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 11¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
9
Family volume
$0
Best sibling
At least $1 billion 95¢
Ticker
KXGOVTSPEND-27-300B
Market snapshot
At least $300 billion in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will government spending increase by 300000000000 before 2027?. The displayed quote is 77¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $640. In the Will government spending increase family, this outcome ranks #5 of 9 by current quote across 9 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 8:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
At least $300 billion
Family rank
#5 of 9
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
77¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Apr 1, 2027
Reported volume
$640
Family context
9 outcomes · Will government spending increase
Quote range
8¢-95¢
Family leader
At least $1 billion 95¢
Last updated
May 13, 2026, 8:23 AM UTC · 4m ago
Venue identifier: KXGOVTSPEND-27-300B. Family volume: —.
Price history
77¢ current
−1¢Orderbook snapshot
76 / 87¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If government spending increases by at least $300 billion above the Q4 2025 level in any quarter during 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
Identifier
KXGOVTSPEND-27-300B
Event family
Will government spending increase.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
9
Highest price
At least $1 billion 95¢
Current share
—
At least $300 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-300B
At least $1 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-1B
At least $50 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-50B
At least $100 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-100B
At least $200 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-200B
At least $400 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-400B
At least $500 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-500B
At least $750 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-750B
At least $1 trillion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-1000B
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 77% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.