At least $750 billion · Will government spending increase
At least $750 billion is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 9 inside Will government spending increase.
Price history
30¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If government spending increases by at least $750 billion above the Q4 2025 level in any quarter during 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least $750 billion
Rank
#8 of 9
Leader
At least $1 billion 95¢
Range
5¢-95¢
Family volume
$9
Identifier
KXGOVTSPEND-27-750B
Jul 12, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
11¢
Reported volume
$416
Family rank
#8 of 9
9 outcomes · Will government spending increase
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
Family volume
$9
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If government spending increases by at least $750 billion above the Q4 2025 level in any quarter during 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
Identifier
KXGOVTSPEND-27-750B
Event family
Will government spending increase.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9
Outcomes
9
Highest price
At least $1 billion 95¢
Current share
0%
At least $1 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-1B
At least $50 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-50B
At least $100 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-100B
At least $200 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-200B
At least $300 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-300B
At least $400 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-400B
At least $500 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-500B
At least $750 billion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-750B
At least $1 trillion
kalshi · KXGOVTSPEND-27-1000B
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.