What is the current probability for "Will Greg Kidd be the Democratic nominee for NV-02?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 36¢ (36% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Greg Kidd be the Democratic nominee for NV-02?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 260.4% and 16.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Greg Kidd be the Democratic nominee for NV-02?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Greg Kidd be the Democratic nominee for NV-02?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Greg Kidd be the Democratic nominee for NV-02?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows zero liquidity with no volume or open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a genuine probability estimate.

██████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

36¢

Bid/Ask 20/28¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $27·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXNVPRIMARY-02D26-GKID

7-day price3 snapshots · 4 regime

29¢20¢ current

Apr 1920¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows zero liquidity with no volume or open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a genuine probability estimate. The 158% implied yield on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the near-zero price rather than a real opportunity, while the 2¢ spread indicates minimal market depth. With 565 days until expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be an inactive market awaiting either candidate emergence or increased trader interest in the 2026 Nevada House race.

Resolution rules

If Greg Kidd wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NV-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 260.4%

IY (No) 16.3%

Adj IY 78%

CRI 4

Overround -0.2%

LAS 0.40

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	260.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	78%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.40	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:12:53 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNVPRIMARY-02D26-GKID yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →