Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.00% in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.00% in April 2026?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with only $1 in 24-hour volume and $1 open interest, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 4¢ spread.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $1 in 24-hour volume and $1 open interest, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 4¢ spread. The extreme implied yield skew—108.3% for Yes versus 26,583% for No—reflects the market's near-certainty that Brazilian inflation will exceed 4% in April 2026, though such lopsided odds in thin markets often indicate pricing inefficiency rather than genuine conviction. With just 22 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, this contract carries meaningful binary risk, and traders should be cautious about treating the 94¢ quote as a meaningful probability given the negligible liquidity.
Resolution rules
If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.00% in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRAZILINF-26APR-T4.00 yes 100