Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.00% in April 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.20%
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Above 4.40%
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Mar 31, 2027
297 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will inflation in Brazil
Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.10% in Jul 2026?: Above 5.10%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T5.10
Will inflation in Brazil be below 4.00% in Dec 2026?: In Dec 2026
KXBRAZILINF-26DEC-4.00
Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.20% in Jul 2026?: Above 5.20%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T5.20
Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.20% in Jun 2026?: Above 5.20%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUN-T5.20
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.20% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.20%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T4.20
Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.10% in Jun 2026?: Above 5.10%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUN-T5.10
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.90% in Jun 2026?: Above 4.90%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUN-T4.90
Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.00% in Jun 2026?: Above 5.00%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUN-T5.00
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.80% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.80%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T4.80
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.50% in May 2026?: Above 4.50%
KXBRAZILINF-26MAY-T4.50
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.30% in Jun 2026?: Above 4.30%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUN-T4.30
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.20% in Jun 2026?: Above 4.20%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUN-T4.20
Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.00% in Jul 2026?: Above 5.00%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T5.00
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.90% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.90%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T4.90
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.70% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.70%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T4.70
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.60% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.60%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T4.60
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.40% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.40%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T4.40
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.50% in Jun 2026?: Above 4.50%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUN-T4.50
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.30% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.30%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T4.30
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.50% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.50%
KXBRAZILINF-26JUL-T4.50
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Brazil's year-over-year CPI inflation will exceed 4.0% when measured through April 2026. The current 65% probability reflects recent inflation dynamics in Brazil, where the Central Bank has been managing price pressures through monetary policy adjustments. The main drivers include currency fluctuations against the US dollar, which affect import costs, and domestic demand conditions. Market pricing shows significant uncertainty around the 4.0% threshold—contracts betting on inflation above 3.6% trade much higher than those above 4.0%—suggesting sentiment clusters around the 3.6-3.8% range. The resolution will depend on actual CPI data released by Brazil's statistics agency, with the official April 2026 inflation figures providing the definitive outcome. Real-time factors include commodity price movements, labor market conditions, and the Central Bank's interest-rate decisions through early 2026.
- ›The 4.0% contract trades at only 3 cents versus 64 cents for the 3.6% threshold, indicating market expectation that inflation settles in the 3.6-3.8% band rather than exceeding 4.0%
- ›Brazil's currency strength or weakness versus the dollar directly impacts import prices and inflation; recent volatility in the real creates uncertainty about the exact inflation trajectory
- ›The Central Bank's policy rate decisions between now and April 2026 will significantly influence inflation expectations and actual price growth
- ›Commodity price movements, particularly oil and agricultural products, are key drivers of Brazilian inflation given export-dependent sectors
- ›Official CPI data will be released by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) in early May 2026, providing the definitive resolution figure
What moved the line
- Jun 7Above 4.30%↓37pp95→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Above 4.50%↓19pp75→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 4.50%↑17pp55→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Above 4.30%↑15pp79→94¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 4.50%↑13pp56→69¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above -0.08%last 3% · 1d
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 5d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 7d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 8d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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