Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.25% in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.25% in April 2026?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 10¢ spread, suggesting virtually no real trading activity and making the displayed 0¢ price unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 10¢ spread, suggesting virtually no real trading activity and making the displayed 0¢ price unreliable. The astronomical implied yields (730% for Yes, 3976% for No) are artifacts of near-zero pricing rather than genuine market signals, and with only 21 days to expiry, any actual trading could cause severe price whipsaw. The flat 7-day price action at 70¢ contradicts the stated 0¢ current price, indicating potential data inconsistency or a stale quote on this illiquid contract.
Resolution rules
If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.25% in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRAZILINF-26APR-T4.25 yes 100