Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above 0%?
Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above 0%?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 2155% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 2155% implied yield on the Yes side. The 14¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and the sharp 7-day rally from 30¢ to 56¢ suggests recent price discovery in a thin market where small trades create outsized moves. With only 13 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this contract faces imminent expiry risk, making it unsuitable for most traders despite the theoretically attractive odds.
Resolution rules
If Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 is above 0 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T0 yes 100