Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above 0%?

Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above 0%?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 2155% implied yield on the Yes side.

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62¢mid
Bid/Ask 55/69¢·Spread 14¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining
KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T0
7-day price8 snapshots · 3 regime
67¢55¢ current
Apr 817¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 2155% implied yield on the Yes side. The 14¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and the sharp 7-day rally from 30¢ to 56¢ suggests recent price discovery in a thin market where small trades create outsized moves. With only 13 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this contract faces imminent expiry risk, making it unsuitable for most traders despite the theoretically attractive odds.

Resolution rules

If Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 is above 0 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3529.1%
IY (No) 5271.9%
Adj IY 2636%
CRI 1
Overround 3.9%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)3529.1%
IY (No)5271.9%
Adj IY2636%
CRI1
Overround3.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
14¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:04:38 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T0 yes 100

Related concepts

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