Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%
Leader sits at 92% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.4%
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
Above -0.3%
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
34 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.0%?: Above -0.0%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T-0.0
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T1.0
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.9%?: Above 0.9%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T0.9
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.7%?: Above 0.7%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T0.7
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T0.6
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T0.5
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T0.4
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T0.3
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T0.2
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T0.1
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T-0.4
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T-0.3
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T-0.2
Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%
KXITGDPQOQA-26JUL30-T-0.1
Analysis
This market assesses whether Italy's quarterly economic growth will exceed -0.2% in the first quarter of 2026. The 66% probability reflects trader expectations of modest positive or near-flat growth rather than contraction. Italian GDP growth depends heavily on eurozone conditions, domestic consumption, and industrial output. The assessment balances recent economic resilience against structural headwinds in manufacturing and external demand. Official quarterly GDP data from Italy's statistical agency (Istat) will be released in early May 2026, definitively resolving the outcome. Until then, interim economic indicators—industrial production, purchasing manager surveys, and consumer confidence—will provide directional signals.
- ›Italy's recent quarterly GDP trends show whether the economy has maintained momentum or slipped into contraction territory
- ›Eurozone monetary policy and external demand conditions directly affect Italian export-oriented manufacturing and overall growth capacity
- ›Domestic consumption patterns and labor market conditions in Q1 2026 determine whether internal demand can offset any external slowdown
- ›Istat's preliminary GDP estimate release date in May 2026 serves as the binding resolution point for market settlement
- ›Prior economic forecasts from institutions like the European Commission or ECB provide baseline expectations against which Q1 actual growth will be measured
What moved the line
- Jun 24Above -0.2%↑4pp78→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above -0.2%↓4pp82→78¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
- Will Canada inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.2%Above 2.6%last 86% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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