Will James be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will James be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The 3% price reflects James's historically dominant position as America's top baby boy name, yet the extraordinarily high 4563% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe underpricing relative to historical precedent—James held the #1 spot for 13 consecutive years through 2020.
Analysis
The 3% price reflects James's historically dominant position as America's top baby boy name, yet the extraordinarily high 4563% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe underpricing relative to historical precedent—James held the #1 spot for 13 consecutive years through 2020. With zero 24-hour volume and only $520 in open interest against a 259-day runway, this market suffers from critical illiquidity that likely explains the distorted pricing, as the tight 3¢ spread masks a potentially exploitable mispricing for informed bettors familiar with SSA naming trends. The moderate cliff risk score of 32 and neutral regime indicate no imminent catalysts, making this primarily a liquidity-driven anomaly rather than a fundamental repricing of James's 2025 odds.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If James is the #1 most popular baby boy name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEBOY-26DEC-JAM yes 100