Will John Blake be the Democratic nominee for NJ-04?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will John Blake be the Democratic nominee for NJ-04?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and no open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and no open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability estimate. The 8¢ spread and extreme 243.9% implied yield on the Yes side suggest severe illiquidity rather than genuine market consensus that Blake has zero chance. With 563 days until expiration and a neutral regime, this market needs meaningful trading activity to establish credible pricing.
Resolution rules
If John Blake wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNJPRIMARY-04D26-JBLA yes 100