Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a modest $2,477.86 open interest, making the 23¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a modest $2,477.86 open interest, making the 23¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 727.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—typical of thin, speculative markets with minimal trading activity—and the narrow 1¢ spread masks the underlying uncertainty given the lack of price discovery. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, this appears to be a niche nomination market where the price may not reflect true consensus probability, particularly if Wood is a relatively unknown or long-shot candidate.
Resolution rules
If Jordan Wood wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 ME-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXME02D-26-JWOO yes 100