Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$46
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
136 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?: Matthew Dunlap
KXME02D-26-MDUN
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Joe Baldacci will win the Democratic primary for Maine's 2nd congressional district. At 31%, the market is assigning roughly one-in-three odds to Baldacci becoming the Democratic nominee. The current level likely reflects uncertainty around candidate field composition and Baldacci's positioning within a potentially competitive primary. Factors that could shift this probability include the formal entry or withdrawal of other candidates, polling data showing changes in voter preference, and fundraising indicators revealing the relative strength of different campaigns. The primary election itself would ultimately resolve this market, though the specific date depends on Maine's election calendar and any special circumstances affecting the race. Primary performance and early election results would provide the most significant catalyst for reassessing the probability.
- ›Field composition: the emergence or non-emergence of credible alternative Democratic candidates would directly affect Baldacci's nomination odds
- ›Polling trends: direct measurement of voter preference among likely Democratic primary voters in ME-02
- ›Campaign fundraising and resources: relative financial capacity to build organization and reach voters
- ›Turnout patterns: Democratic primary participation rates can significantly shift outcomes in lower-salience elections
- ›Election results from comparable recent Maine races: historical patterns in district-level primary competition and nominee selection
What moved the line
- Jun 19Matthew Dunlap↑17pp31→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Matthew Dunlap↓11pp42→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Matthew Dunlap↓9pp35→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Matthew Dunlap↑9pp33→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Matthew Dunlap↑5pp26→31¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (29% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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