Will Lamont McClure be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Lamont McClure be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $197 in 24-hour volume against $2,532 open interest, creating a wide 4¢ spread typical of thin prediction markets.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $197 in 24-hour volume against $2,532 open interest, creating a wide 4¢ spread typical of thin prediction markets. The 5¢ price implies a 5% probability for McClure, but the asymmetric implied yields (2,988.9% for Yes vs. 2.9% for No) reflect the outsized leverage available to contrarian bettors willing to take the long-shot position. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days, combined with a moderate 32 cliff risk index and 395 days to expiration, suggests either declining conviction in McClure's candidacy or simply minimal trading activity moving a thin market.
Resolution rules
If Lamont McClure wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 PA-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPA07D-26-LMCC yes 100