Will Lucas be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Lucas be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $27 open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 3¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $27 open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 3¢ spread. The implied yield of 4563.7% on the Yes side is a classic sign of a thin, low-confidence market where the pricing reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability assessment. Lucas ranked #2 most popular in recent years (behind Liam), making a 3% probability of reaching #1 seem plausible, though the market's near-zero liquidity and high cliff risk index of 32 suggest traders should demand significantly better odds before committing capital.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Lucas is the #1 most popular baby boy name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEBOY-26DEC-LUC yes 100