Will Matthew Fonken be the Democratic nominee for NV-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Matthew Fonken be the Democratic nominee for NV-02?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $300 open interest, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $300 open interest, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 275% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated relative to the 15% yield on No, suggesting the thin liquidity is skewing the pricing rather than reflecting genuine probability assessment. With 566 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 4, this contract has sufficient time for information to emerge, but traders should expect wide spreads and difficulty executing meaningful positions.
Resolution rules
If Matthew Fonken wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NV-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNVPRIMARY-02D26-MFON yes 100