Will Maxine Dexter be the Democratic nominee for OR-03?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will Maxine Dexter be the Democratic nominee for OR-03?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. The market is pricing Dexter as an overwhelming favorite at 99¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume despite $3K open interest), suggesting consensus rather than active price discovery.
Analysis
The market is pricing Dexter as an overwhelming favorite at 99¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume despite $3K open interest), suggesting consensus rather than active price discovery. The extreme 1548.8% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the tiny 1¢ downside, creating an asymmetric risk profile typical of heavily favored outcomes with 566 days to expiration. The recent 7-point rally from 89¢ to 96¢ and elevated cliff risk index of 24 warrant monitoring, as late-stage nomination dynamics or unexpected challengers could trigger repricing despite current market conviction.
Resolution rules
If Maxine Dexter wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 OR-03 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXORPRIMARY-03D26-MDEX yes 100