Will Nithya Raman finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Nithya Raman finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in predicting Raman's second-place finish.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in predicting Raman's second-place finish. The 0¢ price implies the market is pricing in essentially zero probability, yet the 172.1% implied yield on the Yes side indicates significant mispricing potential if any volume materializes—a classic sign of an inactive market where the pricing mechanism has broken down. With 412 days until the June 2027 election and no recent price movement, this appears to be a dormant contract awaiting either market catalyst or resolution.
Resolution rules
If Nithya Raman finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-MAYORLA26-2-NRAM yes 100