What is the current probability for "Will Ola Hawatmeh be the Republican nominee for FL-19?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2026. 196 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Ola Hawatmeh be the Republican nominee for FL-19?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2144.3% and 16.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Ola Hawatmeh be the Republican nominee for FL-19?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Ola Hawatmeh be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Ola Hawatmeh be the Republican nominee for FL-19?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme asymmetry with near-zero trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $11.15, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 8/16¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $11.15·Closes Nov 3, 2026·196d remaining

KXFL19R-26-OHAW

Analysis

4d ago

This micro-liquidity market shows extreme asymmetry with near-zero trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $11.15, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical 2092% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine probability assessment, while the 8¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty. With 201 days to resolution and a moderate cliff risk score of 12, this market lacks sufficient depth for confident directional positioning.

Resolution rules

If Ola Hawatmeh wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 FL-19 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2144.3%

IY (No) 16.2%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 12

Overround -0.1%

LAS 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2144.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:56:33 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFL19R-26-OHAW yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →