Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$314
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?: Jim Oberweis
KXFL19R-26-JOBE
Cluster 2
Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19
Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?: Jim Schwartzel
KXFL19R-26-JSCH
Cluster 3
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?: Catalina Lauf
KXFL19R-26-CLAU
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that Madison Cawthorn will win the Republican primary for Florida's 19th congressional district. At 29%, markets suggest he faces meaningful competition, though he remains a plausible contender. The probability is driven by Cawthorn's existing political profile and fundraising capacity against potential challengers within the district's Republican electorate. Factors supporting higher odds include name recognition from his previous congressional service; factors supporting lower odds include questions about electoral viability following his 2022 primary loss and subsequent controversies. The primary election itself, typically held in August of election years, will ultimately resolve this question. Until then, shifts in candidate announcements, polling data, or fundraising reports could materially move this probability up or down.
- ›Cawthorn's track record in recent elections, particularly his 2022 primary loss in NC-11 and whether similar patterns hold in FL-19
- ›Strength and number of competing Republican candidates who announce entry into the FL-19 race
- ›Cawthorn's fundraising totals and spending relative to primary opponents in the months before the election
- ›Demographics and historical voting patterns of FL-19's Republican primary electorate
- ›Any new polling data or internal campaign metrics released between now and the August primary election
What moved the line
- Jun 24Jim Schwartzel↑8pp20→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Jim Oberweis↑6pp12→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Catalina Lauf↓6pp47→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Jim Oberweis↑5pp7→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Jim Schwartzel↑5pp19→24¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.