Will Pimmie be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Pimmie be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a 55% probability for Pimmie's feature on Drake's 'Iceman' album, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—194.1% for Yes versus 101.8% for No—suggest significant mispricing favoring the Yes side, with a risk-adjusted yield of 97% indicating potential value.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 55% probability for Pimmie's feature on Drake's 'Iceman' album, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—194.1% for Yes versus 101.8% for No—suggest significant mispricing favoring the Yes side, with a risk-adjusted yield of 97% indicating potential value. With only $326.31 in open interest and a 13¢ spread on Kalshi, liquidity is notably thin, making this a speculative position that could face execution challenges at scale. The slight downward price drift over seven days (44¢ to 42¢) combined with 260 days to expiry and minimal volume ($2.02 in 24h) suggests limited market conviction, though the neutral regime score indicates no obvious directional momentum.
Resolution rules
If Pimmie is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-PIM yes 100