What is the current probability for "Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Jun 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 1, 2026. 40 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Jun 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 21745.1% and 37.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Jun 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Jun 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario—just 8% probability that Senator Gallego exits before June 1, 2026—yet displays the hallmarks of a highly illiquid micro-contract with only $31 in 24-hour volume and $1,073 open interest.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 4/7¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $1,233.28·OI $1,702.41·Closes Jun 1, 2026·40d remaining

KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-JUN01

7-day price27 snapshots · 30 regime

12¢4¢ current

Apr 181¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario—just 8% probability that Senator Gallego exits before June 1, 2026—yet displays the hallmarks of a highly illiquid micro-contract with only $31 in 24-hour volume and $1,073 open interest. The implied yield on a "Yes" resolution exceeds 27,000%, a mathematically extreme figure reflecting the tiny position sizes and wide 5¢ bid-ask spread typical of low-liquidity prediction markets near expiration. With 42 days to close and a cliff risk index of 32, this contract carries meaningful execution risk for traders, though the neutral regime suggests no imminent political catalysts are driving pricing.

Resolution rules

If Ruben Gallego leaves as Senator before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 21745.1%

IY (No) 37.8%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

RV 4026%

VR 3.28

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	21745.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	37.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4026%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.28	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:17:13 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-JUN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →