Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Jun 1, 2026
Leader sits at 13% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 3, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Before Oct 1, 2026
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
98 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before
Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Nov 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 2026
KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-NOV03
Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXGALLEGOOUT-26OCT01
Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-SEP01
Analysis
This contract reflects the probability that Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego leaves office before June 1, 2026—roughly 29 days from today. The 14% probability suggests market participants view an unexpected departure as unlikely but not negligible. Gallego took office in January 2025 after his 2024 election victory, so early departure would require either resignation, death, or removal. The main drivers of this probability are his recent Senate accession (making sudden exit unusual), his political viability as a newly elected Democrat in a competitive state, and any unforeseen personal or health circumstances. The timeframe is extremely tight, leaving minimal window for major developments. Resolution depends entirely on whether Gallego remains in office through May 31, 2026, with no scheduled event or data release creating obvious catalysts for change.
- ›Gallego assumed office in January 2025 with no public indication of health problems or plans to resign
- ›The 29-day window to June 1, 2026 provides minimal time for typical political or personal events to trigger departure
- ›Related Kalshi contracts show much lower probabilities for other senators leaving office (McConnell at 3% through July, Gallego staying in House at 6% through July)
- ›Market volume is low, suggesting limited arbitrage activity or specialized information among traders
- ›Departure would require resignation, medical emergency, or removal—none of which have visible precursors in current reporting
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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