Will Russell Cleveland be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Russell Cleveland be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite over a year until resolution, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread on just $1,422 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite over a year until resolution, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread on just $1,422 open interest. The price has collapsed 89% over seven days (from 9¢ to 1¢), suggesting either new information about Cleveland's candidacy or thin-market noise, though the 1,178% implied yield on the Yes side indicates minimal conviction behind the current 8¢ price. The neutral regime and moderate cliff risk (13) suggest this is a speculative position rather than a fundamentally-driven market, warranting caution given the illiquidity and potential for further sharp repricing.
Resolution rules
If Russell Cleveland wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MT-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMT01D-26-RCLE yes 100