Will Russell Cleveland be the Democratic nominee for MT-01
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 95% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
95%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
363 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Sam Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01
Will Sam Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?: Sam Forstag
KXMT01D-26-SFOR
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Russell Cleveland will win the Democratic primary for Montana's 1st Congressional District. At 31%, the market is suggesting Cleveland faces meaningful but uncertain prospects in what may be a competitive primary race. Primary outcomes depend on several concrete factors: candidate field composition and whether stronger-name Democrats enter the race, voter turnout patterns in Democratic-leaning areas, local fundraising and endorsement dynamics, and how national Democratic resources are allocated to this seat. The race likely will be substantially clarified after the primary filing deadline and once final candidate lineups are known. If high-profile candidates enter or decline to run, the probability would shift significantly. Local polling data and early voting patterns would provide additional clarity closer to election day.
- ›Whether other established Democratic candidates file to run, which would directly impact Cleveland's primary vote share
- ›Local fundraising totals and major endorsements from Montana Democratic Party figures and national groups
- ›Voter turnout levels in Democratic strongholds within MT-01, which typically determine primary outcomes
- ›Name recognition and prior electoral experience of Cleveland relative to competing primary candidates
- ›Primary filing deadlines and final candidate field composition in the coming weeks
What moved the line
- Jun 3Sam Forstag↑36pp13→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Sam Forstag↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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