Will Sam McCown be the Republican nominee for SC-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Sam McCown be the Republican nominee for SC-01?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing June 9, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a distant 419-day expiry, with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,743 open interest paired against an 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a distant 419-day expiry, with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,743 open interest paired against an 8¢ spread. The price has collapsed 77% over seven days (from 13¢ to 3¢), suggesting either new information about McCown's candidacy or thin-market mechanics, though the 3,683% realized volatility and 32 cliff risk index indicate this is a highly unstable contract. The asymmetric implied yields (2,819% for Yes versus 2.7% for No) reflect the extreme illiquidity rather than genuine probability divergence, making this difficult to trade meaningfully at current prices.
Resolution rules
If Sam McCown wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 SC-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSC01R-26-SMCC yes 100