Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. Scott Bottoms' nomination odds have declined sharply from 20¢ to 16¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating market sentiment despite the contract still trading 566 days before expiry.
Analysis
Scott Bottoms' nomination odds have declined sharply from 20¢ to 16¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating market sentiment despite the contract still trading 566 days before expiry. The extreme 338.8% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the low absolute price, but the modest $40 daily volume and $4,381 open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings around nomination-relevant news. The neutral regime score and moderate 5 cliff risk index suggest the market is currently stable, though the wide gap between Yes (338.8%) and No (12.3%) implied yields hints at significant uncertainty about Bottoms' viability as a Republican gubernatorial candidate.
Also on polymarket at 14¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
If Scott Bottoms wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Colorado Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVCONOMR-26-SBOT yes 100