Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado?: Barbara Kirkmeyer
KXGOVCONOMR-26-BKIR
Cluster 2
Will Victor Marx be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado
Will Victor Marx be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado?: Victor Marx
KXGOVCONOMR-26-VMAR
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Scott Bottoms wins the Republican primary for Colorado governor ahead of the 2026 general election. At 35%, the market indicates he is considered a viable but not dominant candidate within the field. Bottoms' probability would likely rise if he gains momentum through early endorsements, fundraising success, or strong polling performance in key Republican areas. Conversely, it could decline if other candidates consolidate support or if he faces criticism on policy positions. The primary election itself—scheduled for June 2026—represents the key event that will resolve this question definitively. Until then, shifts in the probability will track candidate activity, emerging challengers, and performance indicators that suggest broader electability or appeal to Republican primary voters.
- ›Primary election is scheduled for June 2026, roughly one month away from the current date
- ›35% probability suggests Bottoms is one of several credible candidates rather than frontrunner or long-shot
- ›Market is aggregating data from 18 Kalshi contracts, indicating moderate but not overwhelming trading volume or certainty
- ›No recent major endorsements or polling data are visible in the contract feed, suggesting uncertainty remains high among prediction market participants
- ›Colorado Republican primary dynamics and candidate field composition directly influence whether 35% represents strong positioning or remaining fragmentation
What moved the line
- Jun 19Barbara Kirkmeyer↓28pp46→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Victor Marx↑20pp44→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Victor Marx↑13pp74→87¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Victor Marx↑9pp64→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Barbara Kirkmeyer↓6pp15→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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