Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. Scott Bottoms' odds have collapsed 33% over the past week (from 21¢ to 14¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival at a rate of 1.4 updates per hour, though the extremely thin $0.73 daily volume raises questions about price reliability.
Analysis
Scott Bottoms' odds have collapsed 33% over the past week (from 21¢ to 14¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival at a rate of 1.4 updates per hour, though the extremely thin $0.73 daily volume raises questions about price reliability. The astronomical 3033% implied yield on "Yes" positions indicates severe mispricing or near-zero conviction in his candidacy, while the 897% realized volatility and 6/10 cliff risk score point to an unstable, illiquid market vulnerable to manipulation. With only 74 days to resolution and $12.6K open interest concentrated in a low-volume venue, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a genuine probability assessment of Bottoms' primary viability.
Also on kalshi at 16¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Colorado Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Colorado Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x5b4754c5c3a1c7ecb4a5c415e68c90e2d78fae7f8eb31803e3fc7c3ac3e63b0d yes 100