What is the current probability for "Will Seattle win the MLS Cup?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 8, 2027. 261 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Seattle win the MLS Cup?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3353.7% and 5.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Seattle win the MLS Cup?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Seattle win the MLS Cup?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Seattle win the MLS Cup?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027. Seattle's odds have collapsed 43% over the past week (from 7¢ to 4¢), suggesting deteriorating team performance or injury concerns heading into the 2026 season.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $101.76·OI $32,991.37·Closes Jan 8, 2027·261d remaining

KXMLSCUP-26-SEA

7-day price81 snapshots · 45 regime

8¢4¢ current

Apr 91¢Apr 20

Analysis

5d ago

Seattle's odds have collapsed 43% over the past week (from 7¢ to 4¢), suggesting deteriorating team performance or injury concerns heading into the 2026 season. The extreme 3285% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects the deep discount, but zero 24-hour volume and a modest $26,542 open interest indicate minimal liquidity to actually capitalize on this asymmetry. With 267 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 24, this market appears underpriced relative to Seattle's historical MLS competitiveness, though the lack of trading activity suggests limited conviction among bettors.

Resolution rules

If Seattle is the 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3353.7%

IY (No) 5.8%

Adj IY 1677%

CRI 24

Overround -0.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3353.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1677%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 10:14:24 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 10:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSCUP-26-SEA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →