Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?
Prediction markets currently give a 53% probability that Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?. This contract trades at 53¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows minimal activity with zero 24-hour volume despite reasonable liquidity of $1,549 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, suggesting limited trader interest in a nomination contest still 566 days away.
Analysis
This market shows minimal activity with zero 24-hour volume despite reasonable liquidity of $1,549 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, suggesting limited trader interest in a nomination contest still 566 days away. The 52¢ price implies a coin-flip probability for Thanedar, but the asymmetric yields (59.6% for Yes vs. 69.9% for No) indicate the market slightly favors the No outcome when accounting for time value. The recent 3¢ decline from 55¢ over seven days warrants monitoring, though the neutral regime score and minimal cliff risk suggest this reflects gradual sentiment drift rather than a significant catalyst.
Resolution rules
If Shri Thanedar wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MI-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMI13D-26-STHA yes 100