Will SNP win above 68 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will SNP win above 68 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume and only $18 open interest creating a near-zero spread that masks the true bid-ask gap.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume and only $18 open interest creating a near-zero spread that masks the true bid-ask gap. The 4¢ price implies SNP has less than a 5% chance of exceeding 68 seats—a historically strong threshold given they won 64 seats in 2021—yet the Yes-side implied yield of 2272% suggests severe underpricing relative to fundamental probabilities, indicating this may reflect minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus. With 386 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, this contract lacks the depth needed for reliable price discovery on Scottish electoral outcomes.
Resolution rules
If SNP has won above 68 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSNPMAJORITY-26MAY07-A68 yes 100