Will Spencer Pratt finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will Spencer Pratt finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. The market is pricing Spencer Pratt at just 16¢ despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 465.6% for Yes positions, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the payout structure—though this extreme yield reflects the low absolute probability rather than hidden value.
Analysis
The market is pricing Spencer Pratt at just 16¢ despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 465.6% for Yes positions, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the payout structure—though this extreme yield reflects the low absolute probability rather than hidden value. Liquidity is extremely thin at only $600 open interest with a wide 7¢ spread, creating execution risk and potential for sharp repricing on modest volume. With 412 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market has ample time for information discovery, but the minimal trading activity (just $600 in 24h volume) indicates limited market conviction and makes this difficult to trade meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If Spencer Pratt finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-MAYORLA26-2-SPRA yes 100