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Tesla Inc. report above 380000 total deliveries in Q2 2026

above 380000 is priced at 83¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 83¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside Will Tesla Inc. report above.

Price history

83¢ current

+13¢
25¢50¢75¢
May 1, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

If Tesla Inc. reports above 380000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

above 380000

Rank

#8 of 16

Leader

Above 310000 95¢

Range

25¢-95¢

Family volume

$4K

Identifier

KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-380000.0

May 28, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 4m ago

Implied probability

83¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 4m ago

Bid

83¢

Ask

91¢

Spread

24h volume

$46

Family rank

#8 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Tesla Inc. report above

Closes

Aug 21, 2026

Family volume

$4K

Orderbook snapshot

83 / 91¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
83¢166
82¢600
75¢120
44¢28
43¢1.1K
AskSize
91¢1
92¢166
99¢260

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Tesla Inc. reports above 380000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 21, 2026

Identifier

KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-380000.0

SF Signal
SF Index
1045.77
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

87.7%

IY (No)

2091.5%

Adj IY

1046%

CRI

5

Overround

10.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.568

Observability

high

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

87.7%
2091.5%
Adj IY
1046%
5
Overround
10.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.