Will Tesla Inc. report above 430000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 430000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2590% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 32% on the No side, suggesting the 55¢ price may significantly undervalue Tesla's delivery prospects relative to the 430,000 threshold—a level Tesla exceeded in Q2 2025 with 443,956 units.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2590% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 32% on the No side, suggesting the 55¢ price may significantly undervalue Tesla's delivery prospects relative to the 430,000 threshold—a level Tesla exceeded in Q2 2025 with 443,956 units. The near-zero 24-hour volume and $533.4 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, and the dramatic 7-day price surge from 1¢ to 10¢ (now trading at 55¢) combined with a 4233% realized volatility and 9¢ spread reflects high uncertainty and potential pricing inefficiency rather than genuine conviction. With 127 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether prices reflect fundamental expectations or merely reflect low liquidity dynamics.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 430000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-430000.0 yes 100