Will Tesla Inc. report above 410000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 410000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic recent volatility, surging from 1¢ to 36¢ over seven days before settling at 44¢, though the extremely thin liquidity ($1,504 open interest, $1,321 daily volume) and wide 7¢ spread raise concerns about price reliability.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic recent volatility, surging from 1¢ to 36¢ over seven days before settling at 44¢, though the extremely thin liquidity ($1,504 open interest, $1,321 daily volume) and wide 7¢ spread raise concerns about price reliability. The 511.5% implied yield on the Yes side appears artificially inflated due to the low absolute price, and the 4.62 volatility ratio combined with 2183% realized volatility suggests this contract is experiencing outsized swings relative to fundamental information arriving at only 0.6 events per hour. With 127 days to expiration and a neutral regime, traders should be cautious about the recent price momentum—the thin market structure makes this vulnerable to manipulation or liquidity-driven moves rather than genuine conviction about Tesla's Q2 2026 delivery targets.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 410000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-410000.0 yes 100