Will Tesla Inc. report above 330000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 330000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) that Tesla will exceed 330,000 Q2 2026 deliveries, yet this conviction is undermined by minimal liquidity with just $20 in 24-hour volume and zero open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) that Tesla will exceed 330,000 Q2 2026 deliveries, yet this conviction is undermined by minimal liquidity with just $20 in 24-hour volume and zero open interest. The dramatic 59-cent price surge over seven days combined with an 8-cent spread and asymmetric implied yields (35.6% for Yes vs. 2328.9% for No) suggests this may be a thinly-traded market vulnerable to price distortion rather than genuine consensus. With 127 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 8, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this extreme probability estimate given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 330000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-330000.0 yes 100