Will Tesla Inc. report above 310000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 310000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero open interest and volume despite a massive 8-cent spread and 127 days to expiry, suggesting severe liquidity constraints rather than genuine price discovery.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with zero open interest and volume despite a massive 8-cent spread and 127 days to expiry, suggesting severe liquidity constraints rather than genuine price discovery. The 7-day price surge from 19¢ to 92¢ followed by a collapse to 0¢ indicates potential manipulation or a liquidity crisis, compounded by the nonsensical 3309% implied yield on the "No" side—a mathematical artifact of near-zero pricing that renders risk-adjusted metrics unreliable. The 310,000 delivery threshold is notably conservative relative to Tesla's recent performance (1.81M deliveries in 2024), making the 0% probability pricing highly suspect and suggesting this market may be broken or abandoned rather than reflecting genuine market sentiment.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 310000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-310000.0 yes 100