Will the heating oil close price be above 3.699 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 3.699 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 40¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect true market sentiment but rather a stale quote.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 40¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect true market sentiment but rather a stale quote. The astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 7,197% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (32) indicates severe pricing dysfunction, likely driven by the market's minimal liquidity rather than fundamental expectations about heating oil reaching $3.699/gallon by April 2026. With only 6 days to expiry and no recent trading activity, this contract appears abandoned and should be treated with extreme caution.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 3.699 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILW-26APR2417-T3.699 yes 100