Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 5% and 10%?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 4, 2027. 523 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 5% and 10%?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1675.6% and 2.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 5% and 10%?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1675.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	838%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

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