Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

The market is pricing Flávio Bolsonaro's chances of a 5–10% first-round victory at just 7¢, implying extremely low probability despite the extreme 2841% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of deep illiquidity and tail-risk pricing on a low-conviction outcome. The sharp 4-point decline over 7 days (11¢ to 7¢) combined with the 4.44 volatility ratio and 1795% realized volatility suggests significant recent negative information flow or repositioning, though the modest $154k daily volume indicates this is a thin, speculative market with limited price discovery. With 171 days to expiry and a 13 Cliff Risk Index, this remains a highly uncertain long-dated bet where political developments in Brazil could dramatically shift pricing.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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