Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 10% and 20%?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 10% and 20%?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing June 9, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable. The implied yield of 1365.8% on the Yes side is a classic sign of micro-liquidity distortion rather than genuine market conviction, while the sharp 50% price decline over seven days (12¢ to 6¢) suggests either informed selling or simply thin order book dynamics. With 419 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 16, this contract lacks sufficient depth to trade meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary falls within 10% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEMED-GPLA-P15 yes 100