Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 10%?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 10%?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing June 9, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $53 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable for assessing true probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $53 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable for assessing true probability. The implied yield of 1365.8% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—a classic sign of mispricing in thin markets where even small position sizes can distort prices. With 419 days until expiry and a recent price decline from 7¢ to 6¢, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than a genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEMED-GPLA-P5 yes 100