Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 50%?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 50%?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing June 9, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $894 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 39¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $894 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 39¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making. The Yes position offers an outsized 162% risk-adjusted implied yield, but this likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine misprice, and the realized volatility of 289% signals high uncertainty around Platner's primary prospects. The sharp 7-day decline from 20¢ to 35¢ combined with 419 days to expiration suggests sentiment has shifted bearish on Platner winning by a dominant margin, though the low information arrival rate (0.7/h) indicates limited market attention to this niche race.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary falls within 50% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEMED-GPLA-P75 yes 100