Will the margin of victory for Janet Mills in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 0%?
KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEMED-JMIL-P50 · closes Jun 9, 2027 · 420 days remaining
Price
Last
11¢
Bid
5¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
7¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$43
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1649.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 4.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 19 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.2% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 1.40 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 0% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
4 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
7¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 6:25:24 AM
About this market
If the margin of victory for Janet Mills in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEMED-JMIL-P50 yes 100