Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing May 26, 2027. The market is pricing a 24% probability that Cornyn wins by a razor-thin 0-5% margin in a 2026 Texas Republican runoff, with extremely asymmetric payoffs favoring Yes positions at 285.7% implied yield versus 28.5% for No.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 24% probability that Cornyn wins by a razor-thin 0-5% margin in a 2026 Texas Republican runoff, with extremely asymmetric payoffs favoring Yes positions at 285.7% implied yield versus 28.5% for No. Volume is thin at $71.37 in 24 hours despite $8.2k open interest, and the price has drifted up 3 cents over seven days, suggesting modest accumulation of close-race bets. The 405-day timeframe and neutral regime score (0.409) indicate genuine uncertainty about whether Cornyn faces a competitive primary challenge, making the low liquidity and high Yes yield noteworthy for a major statewide race.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 0% and 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-JCOR-P2 yes 100